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Wildfire season isn’t a moment: it’s a wave that builds, peaks, and recedes.
Wildfire season is not a single moment—it is a recurring wave that slowly builds, peaks, and recedes over the course of a year. When MODIS fire detections from 2000–2025 are viewed month by month, a clear pattern emerges: activity rises steadily from the quiet winter months, accelerates through spring, reaches a pronounced peak in August, and then tapers off in the fall. This long, smooth curve shows that fire season begins far earlier than most public attention, with meaningful increases already visible by March and April.
Understanding this wave-shaped pattern is essential. Communities in fire-prone areas move through months of increasing exposure, not a sudden onset of danger. The early rise affects when smoke appears, when fire crews become stretched, and when preparedness measures need to start. Effective wildfire planning cannot focus only on peak summer weeks; it must begin during the early phases of this seasonal build-up.
Regional patterns also differ markedly. Western states follow a single late-summer peak, driven by prolonged heat and dry conditions. In contrast, the eastern United States shows a two-part seasonal wave, with elevated activity in both spring and late fall due to rapid drying of vegetation and shifting humidity. These variations highlight that wildfire is a consistent part of the national seasonal cycle, but its timing and shape vary across regions.
Overall, the visualization reframes wildfire not as a rare, shocking event but as a predictable, annual rhythm—one that shapes how communities prepare, breathe, and make decisions throughout the year.
Using 2010 as an example, these four snapshots show how the wildfire “wave” moves through the year, as the choropleth map shifts from low winter activity to a clear late-summer peak and then back down again in the fall:
